TOURNAMENT BRACKETS & SEEDING FOR POST-SEASON

You had me on the edge of my seat.  What happened?

I was teasing. Forgive my twisted attempt at humor. I respect your efforts.

I also found a nice article about what stats matter most in VB matches. Here is the relevant info from the Volleyballanalytics.net website:

When volleyball coaches were asked which statistics were most important for success on the court, the responses included hitting efficiency, kill percentage, sideout percentage, point-scoring percentage, total combined errors, and points scored per game.

Hitting Efficiency=(kills-errors-blocks)/attempts
Where kills=number of successful attacks, errors=number of attacks that were hitting errors, blocks=number of attacks that were blocked, and attempts=total number of attacks. Hitting Efficiency indicates the amount the point difference between the attacking team and the opponent was increased by each swing.

Kill Percentage=(kills/attempts)*100%
Where kills=number of successful attacks, and attempts=total number of attacks. Kill Percentage indicates the fraction of attacks that led directly to a point for the attacking team.

Sideout Percentage=(receive points/opponent serves)*100%
Where receive points=number of points won when receiving the serve, and opponent serves=number of times the opponent served. Sideout Percentage indicates the fraction of rallies where a team received the serve and went on to win the point. Whichever team achieves a higher side-out rate in a game/set wins that game/set.

Point-Scoring Percentage=(serve points/serves)*100%
Where serve points=number of points won when serving, and serves=number of serves. Point-Scoring Percentage indicates the fraction of rallies where a team served and went on to win the point.

Hitting Effectiveness=Hitting Efficiency-opponent Fraction*opponent Response Efficiency
Where opponent Fraction=fraction of attacks the opponent followed with an attack of their own, and opponent Response Efficiency=opponent hitting efficiency on their response attacks. Hitting Effectiveness provides a way to account for attacks that did not end the rally. If an attacker regularly puts balls into play that the opponent can easily control and then get an attack of their own, that attacker will have a lower Hitting Effectiveness.

I personally think that the sideout stats (PSU vs opponent sideout %) and the hitting percentage differential (hitting efficiency minus opponent hitting efficiency) are the best guides to how successful a team will be in future matches.

I'm imagining that number crunching folks have looked at these metrics for a lot of teams over the years and determined those that these have the highest correlation for successful teams.  It might be interesting to know if the import of certain statistics changed when the rally scoring change occurred, but I'm sure most coaches and a few fans know already.  I don't, but as I said, I appreciate your work and presentation.  I learned a lot.

I noticed from that chart (and in prior year stats) that Penn State tends to have a very low digs/set ratio. I assume that is because they block and/or terminate well, which ultimately means less rallies and less digs.

BYU and PSU had below average digs/set last year, but both had above average blocks/set (BYU had the highest of all teams). I had almost forgotten about the blocking stats. BYU made the final based on their excellent blocking abilities, but PSU had the highest aces/set ratio last year.

I think that's the one thing that differentiates last year's team from this year's team. PSU has dropped their aces/set  (2014=1.9; 2015=1.13) but has increased their blocks/set (2014=2.7; 2015=3.19). Seems to me that they come close to a wash.

I know a lot of people on VT put a lot of stock in digs but as you stated, Penn State's low dig rate is due to high termination rate and for this reason it has never concerned me whatsoever. Yes, the blocking is improved from last year and I think it will only get better as the season winds down.  I attribute a high dig rate to a team that has too many long rally's and can't terminate fast.   Most of the digs we get are good passes(3 passes) which usually end up in points.  We are not terminating as well as the 2008 team but not sure anybody will again.  2008 team was referred to as a "men's type team"  Termination rate was extremely high compared to the rest of the teams in college that year but what would you expect when they had 6 AA's on court at once!  It may be a long time before we see that again but it may happen with this team in 2017 when this super class are Seniors!

One thing I have noticed is a great blocking team will eventually wear down their opponent and force them to make many more hitting errors trying to get around or above the block.  One such match the exemplifies this very well was the 2009 Penn State vs Hawaii Semi-Final match in which Penn State outblocked Hawaii 15-0.  Hawaii was a great defensive team and had some great hitters but all of their hitters were shorter than 6' and just couldn't penetrate the block. Hawaii had many more digs then Penn State but all those digs just wore them down.  I was at that match and saw the frustration not only on the players faces but the coach as well.