|
|
Post by ethankasales on Sept 12, 2022 18:34:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by traveler on Sept 12, 2022 20:25:59 GMT -5
A poster on the other site came up with this fascinating chart showing highest and lowest places each team appeared on each ballot. Last year or so when we did not appear on some ballots, it didn't occur to me that we weren't alone. This is interesting, even for the likes of GA Tech, Pitt and KY. Took a lot of crunching for the poster to create this, and I've lost the formatting. I'm guessing in the case of BYU, there's a non-quality issue leading to the 5 NRs--but just guessing.
Rank Team Highest Rank Lowest Rank
1 Texas 1 2
2 Nebraska 1 3
3 Louisville 2 6
4 Wisconsin 3 12
5 Ohio State 3 15
6 Minnesota 3 12
7 Georgia Tech 5 NR (1)
8 San Diego 3 16
9 Stanford 3 18
10 Purdue 5 20
11 Penn State 3 18
12 Pittsburgh 7 NR (1)
13 Kentucky 9 NR (1)
14 Baylor 9 21
15 BYU 8 NR (5)
16 Florida 10 NR (3)
17 Creighton 9 22
18 Washington 10 NR (1)
19 Marquette 8 NR (3)
20 Oregon 11 NR (6)
21 W Kentucky 11 NR (6)
22 Pepperdine 11 NR (9)
23 Kansas 13 NR (18)
24 Arkansas 12 NR (27)
25 Illinois 19 NR (35)
|
|
|
|
Post by nyline on Sept 12, 2022 21:00:55 GMT -5
A poster on the other site came up with this fascinating chart showing highest and lowest places each team appeared on each ballot. Last year or so when we did not appear on some ballots, it didn't occur to me that we weren't alone. This is interesting, even for the likes of GA Tech, Pitt and KY. Took a lot of crunching for the poster to create this, and I've lost the formatting. I'm guessing in the case of BYU, there's a non-quality issue leading to the 5 NRs--but just guessing. Rank Team Highest Rank Lowest Rank 1 Texas 1 2 2 Nebraska 1 3 3 Louisville 2 6 4 Wisconsin 3 12 5 Ohio State 3 15 6 Minnesota 3 12 7 Georgia Tech 5 NR (1) 8 San Diego 3 16 9 Stanford 3 18 10 Purdue 5 20 11 Penn State 3 1812 Pittsburgh 7 NR (1) 13 Kentucky 9 NR (1) 14 Baylor 9 21 15 BYU 8 NR (5) 16 Florida 10 NR (3) 17 Creighton 9 22 18 Washington 10 NR (1) 19 Marquette 8 NR (3) 20 Oregon 11 NR (6) 21 W Kentucky 11 NR (6) 22 Pepperdine 11 NR (9) 23 Kansas 13 NR (18) 24 Arkansas 12 NR (27) 25 Illinois 19 NR (35) I think you're right about BYU. Interesting to me is that our "highest" and "lowest" are the same as Stanford's "highest" and "lowest." |
|
|
|
Post by jojonito on Sept 12, 2022 23:20:05 GMT -5
This definitely shows what a "science", or not, the voting is when there is such a disparity of votes.  This makes me think of that line in Midsummers Night Dream (I think) that says, "What fools these mortals be". How could 20 people, supposedly looking at the season objectively, have such a difference of opinion? Of course, MY Opinion is the correct opinion We all have our blind spots and areas where we think we know when we don't. |
|
|
|
Post by traveler on Sept 13, 2022 7:11:24 GMT -5
Just a quick note: 64 coaches do the voting (you mentioned 20). From the mathematical standpoint, it means that a team receiving all the first place rankings would receive a total of 1600 points in that week (25 points for each first place vote x 64 voters).
Some folks discussing the polls this week have called them 'random' and wildly inaccurate. But I do think there is some arguably good results derived from the presence of so many opinions. They dissipate wildly unsubstantiated (PSU #3? sorry, but not yet; Stan #3? sorry, they just lost to #20!) votes but allow for personal assessments (say, evaluating the block stats and hitting capability of a certain team; or knowing its prime OH was briefly injured; assessing a 7-0 record for a team in the B1G v a team in the MAC) to average out to a ranking that is often, in the end, defensible. It means that no one needs to be accurate individually...so blindspots are not a problem (but they sure are personally revealing!).
|
|
|
|
Post by pennstate1973 on Sept 13, 2022 7:27:30 GMT -5
I read in years' past many head coaches don't want to take the time and let their assistants fill out the ballots. I've always had the feeling most AVCA voters don't really look deeply into how 30 plus teams did each week.
I feel bad for BYU because those 5 NRs may have been due to politics although I probably would vote them at 15 because that seems about right to me.
With all the examples of unfairness, I still think this early in the season the AVCA poll is more accurate than Massey.
Penn State will win their games this coming weekend and move into the top ten. Some teams above them are definitely going to lose matches (i.e. Stanford will lose two matches).
|
|
|
|
Post by traveler on Sept 19, 2022 14:00:50 GMT -5
AVCA 9/19/22 D1 Poll
9
Rank Team (1sts) PTs W-L Last
1 Texas (63) 1599 8-0 1
2 Louisville(1) 1531 9-1 3
3 Nebraska 1432 8-1 2 (W convincingly v #13 UK; L v #9 Stan)
4 San Diego 1306 9-1 8 (This. Team. Is. Blossoming)
5 Stanford 1278 5-3 9 (W v #2 NE and L to #3 Louisville)
6 Wisconsin 1216 6-2 4 (Lost to #16 FL)
7 Ohio State 1126 4-4 5 (Lost to #12 Pitt; tied for most losses in Top 25)
8 Minnesota 1050 5-3 6
9 Penn State 1040 11-0 11 (Don't recall tighter vote spread between 3 teams as here, between 8-9-10; if perfectly arrayed, would be 64 pt margins)
10 Pittsburgh 1032 9-2 12
11 Purdue 982 9-1 10
12 Florida 942 8-2 16 (W vs WI--1st W v a ranked team this season, 2 loss in the top 10)
13 Georgia Tech 901 7-2 7
14 Baylor 711 10-2 14
15 Kentucky 675 5-4 13 (Lost to #2 NE; tied for most losses in Top 25)
16 BYU 628 7-3 15
17 Pepperdine 612 9-2 22 (Beat #6 Minny and Wash St)
18 Washington 521 8-2 18
19 Marquette 489 9-1 19
20 Arkansas 411 9-1 24
21 Oregon 390 6-2 20
22 Creighton 338 8-3 17
23 Rice 189 10-1 NR
24 Western Kentucky 135 12-2 21
25 UCF 95 8-0 NR (Beat KS)
RV: Kansas 71; Towson 30; Michigan 18; Northwestern 17; Utah 12; Illinois 5; Houston 3; Mississippi State 2
|
|
|
|
Post by nyline on Sept 19, 2022 14:02:41 GMT -5
And . . . the AVCA Twitter version:
|
|
|
|
Post by ethankasales on Sept 19, 2022 14:15:29 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by nyline on Sept 19, 2022 14:35:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by jojonito on Sept 19, 2022 14:56:52 GMT -5
I actually feel better about the AVCA poll (PSU 9) then the "other forum" poll (PSU 6). Sorta weird; Nebraska swept 3 poor teams in the 2nd week and dropped out of 1st place; PSU sweeps 3 poor teams in week 4, and goes up a little in the AVCA poll(9) and 4 places in the "other forum" poll(6). I'm pleased with how PSU has done so far; I just don't think they should be ranked at 6 (other forum poll) after just 2 good wins in the pre-conference play. The polls are chaos right now (as stated above, no team is in the same place as last week other than Texas). Stanford is 4 spots higher than PSU in spite of the fact that they were hammered by Texas(3-0) and beat by PSU(3-2) and beat by Louisville(3-1). Tho, to be fair, I don't think that any team, other than Texas, is gonna have less than 4-5 losses at the end of the year (maybe Louisville). San Diego will have to play Pepperdine & BYU. Louisville will be playing Pitt, Georgi Tech. Louisville does seem to be the 2nd best team in the land at this point. As someone else stated last week, you have Texas and 24 other teams. Where you put those 24 teams is anybody's guess. It'a gonna be a fun volleyball season, especially in the B1G.
P.S. The Pablo poll is probably the "best" indicator of strength of a team IMHO, (where PSU is ranked 6th), but it's so early in the season that it's hard to put credence in *any* poll. Half way or three quarters thru the season will be "very" interesting to see where teams end up. Lee Feinswog from Volleyballmag.com said that anywhere from 8-10 teams could end up in the final four this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by ethankasales on Sept 19, 2022 15:39:08 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by nyline on Sept 19, 2022 16:32:38 GMT -5
. . . . The Pablo poll is probably the "best" indicator of strength of a team IMHO, (where PSU is ranked 6th), but it's so early in the season that it's hard to put credence in *any* poll. Half way or three quarters thru the season will be "very" interesting to see where teams end up. Lee Feinswog from Volleyballmag.com said that anywhere from 8-10 teams could end up in the final four this year. [/div][/quote] FWIW, Pablo is an algorithmic rating system, not a poll. |
|
|
|
Post by traveler on Sept 19, 2022 16:57:41 GMT -5
Do we know anything about how the NCAA power 10 rankings are constructed?
|
|
|
|
Post by jojonito on Sept 19, 2022 21:15:25 GMT -5
. . . . The Pablo poll is probably the "best" indicator of strength of a team IMHO, (where PSU is ranked 6th), but it's so early in the season that it's hard to put credence in *any* poll. Half way or three quarters thru the season will be "very" interesting to see where teams end up. Lee Feinswog from Volleyballmag.com said that anywhere from 8-10 teams could end up in the final four this year. [/div][/quote] FWIW, Pablo is an algorithmic rating system, not a poll. [/quote][/div]
Thanks for the correction. I knew that, just had a senior moment.
|
|
This makes me think of that line in Midsummers Night Dream (I think) that says, "What fools these mortals be". How could 20 people, supposedly looking at the season objectively, have such a difference of opinion? Of course, MY Opinion is the correct opinion 