Minnesota looking really good....

I saw just the last part of set 2, Michigan looked good. Back and forth with the figure skating on Universal Sports which wife wants to see tonight.

I was trying to observe that Santana looks like other hard hitting OHs who have had success against PSU this year.

As far as beating MN, I agree.  My prediction 3-1 and same as with Nebraska.  I have that much confidence in the team.  When it counts, I think they will hit another level in both matches.  One thing I have noticed a lot with MN is they try quite a few short hits over the block.  We need to be ready for that in the back court and I think our defense will handle it.

i think Santana may be the scariest player we face all year. she had a relatively off-night @psu. i have been astounded at her power in games I've caught since then.

OK, so I have been reading all last week how good Santana is and how scary MN can be. Let's take a look at the stats and see what they tell us. I have put together a statistical comparison of the most relevant categories for Penn State vs Minnesota thus far this season. I would have crunched the sideout stats for MN as well, but they are not offered on their website.

The statistical differences between PSU and MN are:
1)  PSU has a better Hitting Effeciency % differential of 65 basis points (that's a significant difference compared to the other top 4 team comparisons).
2)  Aces/set are even.
3)  PSU has a better Blocks/set differential of  0.81 (which is twice as much as MN).
4)  MN has a better Serve Reception % differential of 7 basis points (practically nill).
5)  PSU has a better Digs/set differential (who would've thought) of 0.79 (that's almost 5 times better).

Of course there are other factors which will play into this match, like home court advantage for MN.
However, I see Penn State bringing their "A" game against MN, as they know this match will decide the Big10 winner, pretty much.

I realize that "on paper" PSU is the better team but the game is not won/lost "on paper," that's why they play the games. My presentation is not meant to dispel all concerns, but rather to bolster our confidence. This match, in my opinion, will ultimately come down to errors; whichever team commits the fewest errors will win this match.
As always, please let me know if you spot any errors.
Click on the graphic below to enlarge it.

Very true. The reason I prefer to look at all matches vs conference-only match stats (until the end of the season), is because I prefer to have a larger sample size of matches for statistical analysis purposes, which allows for the ups and downs to smooth out over time.

I noticed something interesting with regard to MN's offense. Daly Santana takes one third of the total attacks/swings and is hitting at a .254% clip. That's more swings than both Tapp sisters combined (although they both hit over .300%) and more than Wilhite, Goehner, and Lohman combined. She's a huge part of their offense and to say that the MN offense runs through her is an understatement. If the PSU block were to key in on her, they could significantly affect the MN offense. I would force the other MN hitters to beat me.

We could also look at it another way. Both Frantti and Courtney are not hitting as efficiently as they could. Courtney is at .248 and Frantti is at .231. If they both hit just 10% more efficiently, they can significantly boost the PSU offense, because those two take the most swings/attacks on PSU's side. Last year Frantti was hitting .310 and Courtney was at .283; so they both have dropped off some.

I was finally able to find the sideout stats for MN, and I compiled them into a chart. As Nyline commented the margins are close, but PSU is a little better in conference-only play.
I have also attached a slightly revised version of the PSU sideout chart below.
Click on the graphics below to open larger versions.


       

Northwestern is pushing Minnesota in the 4th set. I noticed MN tips a lot, seems like one-third of their shots are tips.

Not good.