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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 14:59:13 GMT -5
I promised to update the rotation analysis at the midpoint of the B1G season. Things have gotten a little complicated. This is going to be a long diatribe with many parts.
Coach Rose has played havoc with my attempts to analyze Penn State’s rotations. He stayed with the same serve rotations for the first two B1G matches (Weiskercher, Lee, White, Detering, Frantti, Washington). But then, for the Iowa and Illinois matches, he switched Simone and Ali. The following weekend, in Columbus, he made another switch to the current rotation of Weiskercher, Frantti, Washington, Detering, Lee, and White. To add to the confusion, he put Tori Gorrell at middle and Heidi Thelen on the right side.
In essence, the new rotation is a switch of our middle blockers from the original rotation. That is, Tori Gorrell is now at MB1 and Haleigh Washington is at MB2. Since Kendall White serves in place of Tori, she is now serving in what I would call rotation 2 and Haleigh is serving in rotation 5. [PSU may well use different nomenclature for positions and rotations for the 6-2.}
So, I decided to ignore the one weekend transition and lump those two matches into the original rotation data. The new rotations have been in place for six matches and I have accumulated data for those matches.
Here are the comparisons in a bunch of posts!
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:00:48 GMT -5
Original Rotation 1
Principle Server - Weiskercher
Usual Front Line – Frantti, Thelen, Detering
Usual Back Line – Weiskercher, Lee, White
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Service Points Won – 112 Service Points Lost – 91 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 44.8%
Reception Points Won – 91 Reception Points Lost – 40 Side Out Percentage – 69.5%
Points Won – 203 Points Lost – 131 Winning Percentage – 60.8%
Current Rotation 1
Principle Server - Weiskercher
Usual Front Line – Frantti, Washington, Detering
Usual Back Line – Weiskercher, Lee, White
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Service Points Won – 50 Service Points Lost – 49 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 49.5%
Reception Points Won – 49 Reception Points Lost – 34 Side Out Percentage – 59.0%
Points Won – 99 Points Lost – 83 Winning Percentage – 54.4%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:03:04 GMT -5
Original Rotation 2
Principle Server - Washington
Usual Front Line – Reid/Gorrell, Thelen, Frantti
Usual Back Line – Washington/White, Lee/Pierce, Detering
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Service Points Won – 56 Service Points Lost – 95 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 62.9%
Reception Points Won – 92 Reception Points Lost – 50 Side Out Percentage – 64.8%
Points Won – 148 Points Lost – 145 Winning Percentage – 50.5%
Current Rotation 2
Principle Server - White
Usual Front Line – Thelen, Washington, Frantti
Usual Back Line –White, Lee, Detering
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Service Points Won – 55 Service Points Lost – 44 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 44.4%
Reception Points Won – 48 Reception Points Lost – 17 Side Out Percentage – 73.8%
Points Won – 103 Points Lost – 61 Winning Percentage – 62.8%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:03:50 GMT -5
Original Rotation 3
Principle Server - Lee
Usual Front Line – Washington, Reid/Gorrell, Frantti
Usual Back Line – Lee/Pierce, Detering, White
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Service Points Won – 62 Service Points Lost – 97 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 61.0%
Reception Points Won – 99 Reception Points Lost – 46 Side Out Percentage – 68.3%
Points Won – 161 Points Lost – 143 Winning Percentage – 53.0%
Current Rotation 3
Principle Server - Lee
Usual Front Line – Gorrell, Thelen, Frantti
Usual Back Line – Lee, Detering, White
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Service Points Won – 27 Service Points Lost – 42 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 60.9%
Reception Points Won – 44 Reception Points Lost – 17 Side Out Percentage – 72.1%
Points Won – 71 Points Lost – 59 Winning Percentage – 54.6%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:04:26 GMT -5
Original Rotation 4
Principle Server - Detering
Usual Front Line – Lee, Washington, Reid/Gorrell
Usual Back Line – Detering, White, Frantti
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Service Points Won – 93 Service Points Lost – 109 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 54.0%
Reception Points Won – 108 Reception Points Lost – 49 Side Out Percentage – 68.8%
Points Won – 201 Points Lost – 158 Winning Percentage – 56.0%
Current Rotation 4
Principle Server - Detering
Usual Front Line – Lee, Gorrell, Thelen
Usual Back Line – Detering, White, Frantti
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Service Points Won – 29 Service Points Lost – 44 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 60.3%
Reception Points Won – 45 Reception Points Lost – 15 Side Out Percentage – 75.0%
Points Won – 74 Points Lost – 59 Winning Percentage – 55.6%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:05:01 GMT -5
Original Rotation 5
Principle Server - White
Usual Front Line – Detering, Lee, Washington
Usual Back Line – White, Frantti, Weiskercher
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Service Points Won – 134 Service Points Lost – 99 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 42.5%
Reception Points Won – 106 Reception Points Lost – 33 Side Out Percentage – 76.3%
Points Won – 240 Points Lost – 132 Winning Percentage – 64.5%
Current Rotation 5
Principle Server - Washington
Usual Front Line – Detering, Lee, Gorrell
Usual Back Line – Washington/White, Frantti, Weiskercher
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Service Points Won – 38 Service Points Lost – 44 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 53.7%
Reception Points Won – 44 Reception Points Lost – 20 Side Out Percentage – 68.8%
Points Won – 82 Points Lost – 64 Winning Percentage – 56.2%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:05:38 GMT -5
Original Rotation 6
Principle Server - Frantti
Usual Front Line – Thelen, Detering, Lee
Usual Back Line – Frantti, Weiskercher, White
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Service Points Won – 104 Service Points Lost – 95 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 47.7%
Reception Points Won – 100 Reception Points Lost – 48 Side Out Percentage – 67.6%
Points Won – 204 Points Lost – 143 Winning Percentage – 58.8%
Current Rotation 6
Principle Server - Frantti
Usual Front Line – Washington, Detering, Lee
Usual Back Line – Frantti, Weiskercher, White
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Service Points Won – 57 Service Points Lost – 46 Opponents Side Out Percentage – 44.7%
Reception Points Won – 46 Reception Points Lost – 21 Side Out Percentage – 68.7%
Points Won – 103 Points Lost – 67 Winning Percentage – 60.6%
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 15:08:20 GMT -5
Finally, a bit of analysis. How has the change effected the results? Six matches give us sparse data. But there do seem to be some trends that may be emerging.
First the effectiveness of the servers:
Pre-Switch
Weiskercher Serving Points Won 647 Points Lost 406 Winning Percentage 61.4%
Detering Serving Points Won 510 Points Lost 446 Winning Percentage 53.3%
Total Points Won 1157 Points Lost 852 Winning Percentage 57.6%
Post-Switch
Weiskercher Serving Points Won 284 Points Lost 214 Winning Percentage 57.0%
Detering Serving Points Won 248 Points Lost 179 Winning Percentage 58.1%
Total Points Won 532 Points Lost 393 Winning Percentage 57.5%
This data could also be viewed as Detering in the front row vs. Thelen in the front row. In any case, it appears that the rotation change has evened out the results between servers although the overall result has not changed.
How about the middle blockers?
Pre-Switch
Washington Front Row Points Won 602 Points Lost 433 Winning Percentage 58.2%
Gorrell/Thelen Front Row Points Won 555 Points Lost 419 Winning Percentage 57.0%
Total Points Won 1157 Points Lost 852 Winning Percentage 57.6%
Post-Switch
Washington Front Row Points Won 305 Points Lost 211 Winning Percentage 59.1%
Gorrell Front Row Points Won 227 Points Lost 182 Winning Percentage 55.5%
Total Points Won 532 Points Lost 393 Winning Percentage 57.5%
Perhaps some change here, but need more data to affirm that.
And what about the hitters?
Pre-Switch
Lee Front Row Points Won 645 Points Lost 433 Winning Percentage 59.8%
Frantti Front Row Points Won 512 Points Lost 419 Winning Percentage 55.0%
Total Points Won 1157 Points Lost 852 Winning Percentage 57.6%
Post-Switch
Lee Front Row Points Won 259 Points Lost 190 Winning Percentage 57.7%
Frantti Front Row Points Won 273 Points Lost 203 Winning Percentage 57.4%
Total Points Won 532 Points Lost 393 Winning Percentage 57.5%
Perhaps some movement here too, but more data needed. Of course, this could be interpreted as back row data since whenever one is in the front the other is in the back. Regarding serve receive however, PSU uses alignments in all six rotations that have the threesome of White, Lee and Franti receiving serve.
All done!
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Post by Millennium on Oct 23, 2017 15:21:21 GMT -5
Looks like there is improvement in all rotations. That is, there is at least a 10% difference in sideout % in PSU's favor in every single rotation. So, no one rotation is going to drag us down. Rotations #2 (and to a lesser degree rotation #3) used to be the easiest for opponents to take advantage of a point scoring run. Now we look more balance in all rotations. Does that sound correct? Thanks for posting this analysis seeyajohn . I love this stuff. |
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Post by seeyajohn on Oct 23, 2017 18:35:43 GMT -5
Looks like there is improvement in all rotations. That is, there is at least a 10% difference in sideout % in PSU's favor in every single rotation. So, no one rotation is going to drag us down. Rotations #2 (and to a lesser degree rotation #3) used to be the easiest for opponents to take advantage of a point scoring run. Now we look more balance in all rotations. Does that sound correct? Thanks for posting this analysis seeyajohn . I love this stuff. Yes. I agree that there is better balance among the rotations and we are less likely to get caught in a weak one. Our strongest rotation remains the one where Kendall serves. |
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Post by nyline on Oct 23, 2017 19:51:42 GMT -5
Great stuff -- really interesting. Do you sleep?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 20:20:48 GMT -5
Amazing analysis, thanks. Like juggling 7 balls, one-handed.
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Post by elliotberton on Oct 23, 2017 21:11:29 GMT -5
May I join the throng expressing appreciation for Seeya's effort and sage observations. One expects that our coaching staff crunches numbers just like this on a regular basis.
I had observed generally that the staff has not hesitated to make major changes to the rotations this year. Seeya's data verifies my less objective observations. It looks like moving Reid out and Thelen in on the RS had a noteworthy impact on rotation 4. If Thelen plays the way she did this past weekend, the percentage variation in rotation 4 will grow even more.
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