Post by nyline on Aug 13, 2015 4:16:00 GMT -5
We've updated an article by Lionsfan, who put in a lot of time to compile and analyze stats on how AVCA preseason rankings have fared in terms of predicting the eventual winner. Below is the lede, plus here's a link to the complete article (with a very fancy table showing data from 1982): www.dignittanyvolleyball.com/penn-state-number-1-but-what-does-avca-preseason-poll-really-tell-us-about-who-will-win-the-ncaa-title/
With the AVCA Poll just released yesterday, it’s the perfect time to look back at past AVCA Pre-season Polls to see if we can spot any trends, or derive any insight. OK, insight may be a tall order, but it’s fun to try, right?
The table below lists the AVCA preseason No. 1 team for every season since 1982, along with the team that ended up winning the NCAA Division I title that year, and the preseason AVCA ranking of the championship team. We also have a column indicating the seven years in which the AVCA preseason #1 didn’t make the Final Four.
[Note: in a few years, the records appear to indicate that there was no AVCA pre-season poll. In those years, we used the first available poll. Also, to err is human, to send us corrections for our errors is . . . welcome. Thanks!]
The table below lists the AVCA preseason No. 1 team for every season since 1982, along with the team that ended up winning the NCAA Division I title that year, and the preseason AVCA ranking of the championship team. We also have a column indicating the seven years in which the AVCA preseason #1 didn’t make the Final Four.
[Note: in a few years, the records appear to indicate that there was no AVCA pre-season poll. In those years, we used the first available poll. Also, to err is human, to send us corrections for our errors is . . . welcome. Thanks!]
Polling by the Numbers
◾24 times – the reigning NCAA champion has been ranked #1 the following season.
◾13 times the pre-season #1 has won the national title.
◾7 times the pre-season #1 did not make the Final Four: 1987 Pacific (lost to Hawaii in Regional Final); 1989 Hawaii (lost to Long Beach in Regional Final); 1993 Stanford (lost to UCLA in Regional Semi); 2000 UCLA (lost to Wisconsin in Regional Final); 2007 Nebraska (Lost to Cal in Regional Final); 2011 Penn State (lost to UCLA in Regional Semi); 2012 UCLA (lost to Michigan State in Second Round).
◾1 time UCLA was not ranked in the pre-season poll (2014).
◾24 times – the reigning NCAA champion has been ranked #1 the following season.
◾13 times the pre-season #1 has won the national title.
◾7 times the pre-season #1 did not make the Final Four: 1987 Pacific (lost to Hawaii in Regional Final); 1989 Hawaii (lost to Long Beach in Regional Final); 1993 Stanford (lost to UCLA in Regional Semi); 2000 UCLA (lost to Wisconsin in Regional Final); 2007 Nebraska (Lost to Cal in Regional Final); 2011 Penn State (lost to UCLA in Regional Semi); 2012 UCLA (lost to Michigan State in Second Round).
◾1 time UCLA was not ranked in the pre-season poll (2014).