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Post by pennstate1973 on Sept 19, 2022 23:30:26 GMT -5
Do we know anything about how the NCAA power 10 rankings are constructed? If you're referring to the video, that's just Michella Chester's opinion; no statistics involved. |
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Post by nyline on Sept 20, 2022 8:41:36 GMT -5
So, I did a little digging, and confirmed something I had heard: that two of the voters in the Week 4 AVCA poll left Penn State off their ballots entirely (If you click this link www.avca.org/polls/di-women/index.html and scroll to the bottom of the page, you'll see a link to "Poll Voters Ballots by Week.") I believe those two voters are Katelyn Harrison, the head coach of Belmont University, and Jeannette Waldo (there are actually two coaches named "Jeannette Waldo" -- the head coach of Tennessee Tech and an associate head coach at Wisconsin Green Bay. I think the voters have to be head coaches -- though they can delegate to an assistant, or really anyone they chose). Please feel free to double check me on whether these two did, in fact, leave Penn State off their respective ballots. And which Waldo is voting. To get perspective, I looked at the teams these coaches ranked #21 to #25, and although I think it's clear that they should have ranked Penn State in front of those teams, those two voters can make a (I think very weak) case that the teams they chose deserved to be ranked above Penn State. Katelyn Harrison's picks were: #21 Arkansas (9-1); #22 W. Kentucky (12-2); #23 Kansas (10-2), #24 UCF (8-0) and #25 Rice (10-1). She appears to discount the Penn State wins against Stanford (which she ranks #6) and Oregon (which she ranks #20), and gives great weight to Arkansas's 3-1 win over Georgia Tech (which she ranks #9), and 1-1 record against Washington (which she ranks #18, and seems to wipe the loss from the slate) and 3-0 win over Colorado (which she doesn't rank). Similarly, she must discount the fact that Western Kentucky has only 3 wins over teams with winning records -- Toledo (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4) and Indiana (7-5), and totally discount its losses to Louisville (9-1, which she ranks #2) and Texas A&M (8-3, and the only other team Western Kentucky has played that has a winning record). UCF jumps out for at least being undefeated, with a nice win over unranked Kansas (which she ranked #23), but nothing else that stands out. We could go on -- the story for Jeannette Waldo (whichever Waldo she is) is very much the same as for Harrison. Waldo chose #21 Rice (10-1); #22 W. Kentucky (12-2); #23 Southern Cal (8-3); #24 UCF (8-0); and #25 Kansas (10-2). There it is. I'm still perplexed. And Harrison and Waldo (whichever one she is) are still voters. And I'm still not. |
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Post by pinkpanther on Sept 20, 2022 10:35:13 GMT -5
So, I did a little digging, and confirmed something I had heard: that two of the voters in the Week 4 AVCA poll left Penn State off their ballots entirely (If you click this link www.avca.org/polls/di-women/index.html and scroll to the bottom of the page, you'll see a link to "Poll Voters Ballots by Week.") I believe those two voters are Katelyn Harrison, the head coach of Belmont University, and Jeannette Waldo (there are actually two coaches named "Jeannette Waldo" -- the head coach of Tennessee Tech and an associate head coach at Wisconsin Green Bay. I think the voters have to be head coaches -- though they can delegate to an assistant, or really anyone they chose). Please feel free to double check me on whether these two did, in fact, leave Penn State off their respective ballots. And which Waldo is voting. To get perspective, I looked at the teams these coaches ranked #21 to #25, and although I think it's clear that they should have ranked Penn State in front of those teams, those two voters can make a (I think very weak) case that the teams they chose deserved to be ranked above Penn State. Katelyn Harrison's picks were: #21 Arkansas (9-1); #22 W. Kentucky (12-2); #23 Kansas (10-2), #24 UCF (8-0) and #25 Rice (10-1). She appears to discount the Penn State wins against Stanford (which she ranks #6) and Oregon (which she ranks #20), and gives great weight to Arkansas's 3-1 win over Georgia Tech (which she ranks #9), and 1-1 record against Washington (which she ranks #18, and seems to wipe the loss from the slate) and 3-0 win over Colorado (which she doesn't rank). Similarly, she must discount the fact that Western Kentucky has only 3 wins over teams with winning records -- Toledo (7-4), Austin Peay (7-4) and Indiana (7-5), and totally discount its losses to Louisville (9-1, which she ranks #2) and Texas A&M (8-3, and the only other team Western Kentucky has played that has a winning record). UCF jumps out for at least being undefeated, with a nice win over unranked Kansas (which she ranked #23), but nothing else that stands out. We could go on -- the story for Jeannette Waldo (whichever Waldo she is) is very much the same as for Harrison. Waldo chose #21 Rice (10-1); #22 W. Kentucky (12-2); #23 Southern Cal (8-3); #24 UCF (8-0); and #25 Kansas (10-2). There it is. I'm still perplexed. And Harrison and Waldo (whichever one she is) are still voters. And I'm still not. I peeked at a few ballots from PSU alumni, and I think they had PSU #4 and #5. I looked at some other B1G coaches (or folks with B1G ties as former players), and it looked like their consensus had us in the 9 - 11 or so range. I think the ballot that seems a lot like how I would vote is Dave Shondell's. |
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Post by traveler on Sept 20, 2022 12:05:06 GMT -5
Shondell! Back in the late teens when Coach Rose was still voting his and shondells ballots were often in sync. Not lockstep. But very reasonable. Except shondell usually had PSU a step or three higher.
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Post by traveler on Sept 20, 2022 12:10:45 GMT -5
And while it’s interesting to speculate and examine the ballots, we go back to the genius of how the poll is constructed. 2 odd results— and remember last week someone had us at 3–have little effect on the results. We might do better to look at the mode…which I suspect is around 8 or 9. But I’m not where o can do it now.
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Post by pinkpanther on Sept 20, 2022 12:51:03 GMT -5
Shondell! Back in the late teens when Coach Rose was still voting his and shondells ballots were often in sync. Not lockstep. But very reasonable. Except shondell usually had PSU a step or three higher. I did notice that Shondell had Purdue lower than everyone else, and I suspect he does that for similar reasons as Coach Rose would talk about when he always voted PSU lower than our national average. |
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Post by pinkpanther on Sept 20, 2022 13:31:42 GMT -5
Shondell! Back in the late teens when Coach Rose was still voting his and shondells ballots were often in sync. Not lockstep. But very reasonable. Except shondell usually had PSU a step or three higher. I did notice that Shondell had Purdue lower than everyone else, and I suspect he does that for similar reasons as Coach Rose would talk about when he always voted PSU lower than our national average. I realize I'm straying a bit off topic, but I was glad to see Shondell is a voter. From their twitter presence and their press conferences, I think the B1G coaches have some interesting personalities, and I'm fans of the ones who focus on the positive of their teams and for the sport, and I'm not as much of a fan of the ones that are constantly complaining and seem to always focus on the negative. I'll let folks here speculate on who I think is in which group. I include Shondell in the "always positive" group. His personal twitter is always a good read, and he seems to be the kind of coach who I think I would want to play for. I follow most of the B1G team twitter accounts, too, and I don't know what all of you think, but the Wisconsin one seems to me to stray pretty close to the line of trolling rather than promoting (I'm not saying I think this is a Sheffield thing -- but at the same time, I have to imagine he's aware of what they put out on social media). It definitely influences how I think of their team in a negative way. I think if I were a poll voter, I would probably always vote Purdue a spot or two higher than others and would vote Wisconsin a bit lower. I confess that this is completely a bias fueled by what I read about the teams on-line, but it's hard to separate the team's performance from their on-line persona. I like how PSU athletics celebrates our team, but it's impossible for me to get around my decades of bias for our team. |
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Post by traveler on Sept 20, 2022 19:32:41 GMT -5
Trying to post a chart here showing the spread of votes. The mode for Week 4 was 9, with 8 voters choosing that ranking. Second: 7 voters chose 4th place. Apparently it insists on being a downloadable attachment rather than a table for y'all to read. If anyone can do cleanup on Aisle 9, I would not object. Attachments:Mode Week 4.numbers (132.68 KB)
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Post by ethankasales on Sept 21, 2022 9:58:01 GMT -5
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Post by jojonito on Sept 21, 2022 10:28:34 GMT -5
I would probably put PSU a bit lower than EE did, just because they've played less ranked opponents than most other top B1G teams and also because both ranked wins went 5 sets. EE said in another video that she spent 2 hours (!!) putting together the top 5 B1G teams. Just about all of the top teams have beat some ranked teams and lost to some ranked teams. All of the top teams in the B1G have issues. To name two, NEB has setting problems and MINN seems to depend too much on Taylor Landfair. You could make a case for a number of the top B1G teams depending on your own particular prejudice.  Plus, Ohio St was minus their best MD in their loss to PITT (She had 4 blocks of 6 vs Louisville and hit .500 with 14 kills); which fact nobody seemed to mention in the polls and voting. |
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Post by nyline on Sept 21, 2022 12:00:30 GMT -5
I would probably put PSU a bit lower than EE did, just because they've played less ranked opponents than most other top B1G teams and also because both ranked wins went 5 sets. EE said in another video that she spent 2 hours (!!) putting together the top 5 B1G teams. Just about all of the top teams have beat some ranked teams and lost to some ranked teams. All of the top teams in the B1G have issues. To name two, NEB has setting problems and MINN seems to depend too much on Taylor Landfair. You could make a case for a number of the top B1G teams depending on your own particular prejudice. Plus, Ohio St was minus their best MD in their loss to PITT (She had 4 blocks of 6 vs Louisville and hit .500 with 14 kills); which fact nobody seemed to mention in the polls and voting. I'm pretty much with you on all your points. I didn't realize OSU was without their top MB (I'm assuming that's what you meant, and not their top Doc/MD ). OTOH, both of Penn State's top 2 MBs have missed matches. So, injuries happen. But I take your point. |
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Post by volleyaudience1 on Sept 22, 2022 13:07:16 GMT -5
IMO it seems a little early for me to have real insight into the teams this year. Five good teams. Lots of questions. It's possible the top ten teams in the league will be in a dog fight as everyone wants to move up.
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Post by nyline on Sept 26, 2022 10:06:45 GMT -5
Among the ratings systems/polls I look at is Massey Ratings. I don't think it has much predictive value, and I don't put much stock in its absolute rankings, but I do find it interesting from a directional standpoint. So, before the loss to Michigan, Massey had PSU ranked #5. It currently has PSU ranked #11 -- a drop of 6 spots for one loss (albeit in loss in a sweep) to a Michigan team that has lost only once. masseyratings.com/cvol/ncaa-d1/ratingsI think that is still too high (for example, if this weekend Penn State loses to Wisconsin and beats Michigan State -- which I'm not predicting, but both of which Massey predicts -- than my guess is Massey will rank PSU somewhere around 18th to 22nd). At present I'd put PSU 20th or 21st -- which is where they started the season -- and my guess is that's where they'll be in today's AVCA poll. But it's still much too early to know how this all shakes out. Small sample size of in-conference play. We'll see. |
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Post by traveler on Sept 26, 2022 13:56:09 GMT -5
AVCA 9/26/22 D1 Poll
12
Rank Team (1sts) PTs W-L Last
1 Texas (64) 1600 10-0 1
2 Louisville 1531 11-1 2
3 Nebraska 1462 10-1 3
4 San Diego 1358 11-1 4
5 Purdue 1223 11-1 11
6 Ohio State 1184 5-5 7
7 Minnesota 1173 6-4 8
8 Wisconsin 1139 7-3 6
9 Stanford 1099 6-4 5
10 Pittsburgh 1076 11-2 10
11 Georgia Tech 953 9-2 13
12 Penn State 828 12-1 9
13 Baylor 767 11-2 14
14 Florida 730 10-3 12
15 BYU 725 9-3 16
16 Oregon 654 8-2 21
17 Washington 610 10-2 18
18 Kentucky 477 6-5 15
19 Marquette 470 11-1 19
20 Pepperdine 444 9-4 17
21 Creighton 327 10-3 22
22 Rice 263 12-1 23
23 Arkansas 177 10-2 20
24 UCF 147 10-0 25
25 W Kentucky 132 14-2 24
RV: Michigan 104; LSU 46; Kansas 44; Towson 37; Houston 3
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Post by ethankasales on Sept 26, 2022 14:15:01 GMT -5
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Plus, Ohio St was minus their best MD in their loss to PITT (She had 4 blocks of 6 vs Louisville and hit .500 with 14 kills); which fact nobody seemed to mention in the polls and voting.