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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2022 16:03:33 GMT -5
Here's a thread to discuss various polls ratings -- AVCA Weekly Polls, Massey Ratings, Rich Kern Poll, Pablo Ratings, RPI, and any other polls/ratings people think should be part of the discussion. (It almost goes without saying that Penn State, whereever and whenever it is ranked, is ranked too low, but go ahead and say it  )Note: The Menu Bar for the DigNittanyVolleyball.com website - dignittanyvolleyball.com/ - includes the links: AVCA Polls -- www.avca.org/polls/di-women/index.html Massey Ratings: masseyratings.com/cvol/ncaa-d1/ratings
Rich Kern Poll Comparisons: dignittanyvolleyball.com/rich-kern-poll-comparisons/A quick note about MasseyRatings. I think the overall view of Massey Ratings is that it isn't particularly predictive -- certainly not at the beginning of the season. What I find interesting about it is the predicted wins/losses for the remainder of the season -- again, not necessarily very predictive, but interesting (to me) nonetheless. RPI: www.ncaa.com/rankings/volleyball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-volleyball-rpi
A quick note on RPI -- the NCAA hasn't updated it from 2021, but I assume they will sometime. Hopefully before 2023 
Rich Kern is a pay site ($$$) but it has a free page with a table comparing the Rich Kern Poll, Pablo Rankings, RKPI Rankings, and AVCA Poll. It's very nifty -- you have to select the "view" you want. Here's the link: www.richkern.com/vb/rankings/FreePageRankings.asp
Feel free to add any additional polls or ratings, or specific weekly polls or ratings as they are published. And your comments, of course. According to n00b on VT, there is a new ranking system out that mirrors RPI, somewhat, which could be a potential source of input for future selection committee decisions faktorsports.com/faktorsports.com/#/resume/?team=Penn%20State&v1=1&v2=66&v3=13&v4=227&v5=1665002967975 |
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Post by nyline on Oct 6, 2022 7:15:53 GMT -5
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Post by nyline on Oct 10, 2022 8:24:44 GMT -5
First, the caveat that the only poll that matters is the one the NCAA makes when it seeds teams for the NCAA Tournament, and picks the non-automatic qualifiers. Having said that, I'm curious where Penn State will land in today's AVCA poll. Yesterday, before the Illinois match (and before Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington on Sunday, but after Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington State on Friday) Massey Ratings had Penn State rated #20 (the week before, I think PSU was rated #13 in Massey). This morning, with all those matches taken into account, Massey has Penn State rated #14. To me, the drop to #20 after Friday's matches made sense (not necessarily the specific rating, but the drop itself): Massey was devaluing Penn State's win over Oregon because of Oregon's loss to Washington State, and was dinking Penn State because of its loss to OSU -- even though it was an away loss to a very good team. From the perspective of the Massey Ratings algorithm, there was no guarantee that Penn State would beat Illinois, so taking into account the possibility the Nittany Lions would lose, big drop. After Penn State's win over Illinois (and taking into account all the wins by Stanford over Colorado and Utah, among other things), Massey's algorithm said "hey, pretty good team." The away loss by Oregon to #10 Washington wasn't deemed a bad loss, I guess. Anyway, no great revelations to be drawn from Massey Ratings, but it does help me to keep track of how past and future opponents are doing. Massey Ratings |
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Post by jojonito on Oct 10, 2022 11:00:25 GMT -5
First, the caveat that the only poll that matters is the one the NCAA makes when it seeds teams for the NCAA Tournament, and picks the non-automatic qualifiers. Having said that, I'm curious where Penn State will land in today's AVCA poll. Yesterday, before the Illinois match (and before Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington on Sunday, but after Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington State on Friday) Massey Ratings had Penn State rated #20 (the week before, I think PSU was rated #13 in Massey)..... Whereas I'm curious about the Massey, I'm probably more curious about the Pablo ratings. For some reason, not sure if it's for any valid reasons , I trust the Pablo ratings more than the other polls/ratings algorithms. Also, I find the futures ratings down by vballfan17 on the "other" forum, (previously done by bluepenguin), interesting as it predicts the ending record (based on the Pablo algorithm) and also the ending RPI (heavily used by the NCAA rankins at the end of the year). It does what I was trying to do on another thread, predict what a team will do thru the end of the season based on how good they are now.
I found it interesting that the poll on the "other" forum didn't give PSU any love whatsoever. PSU was ranked 16th on that poll last week and is ranked 16th now; this after taking OSU to 5 (whom they have ranked #5) and beating a decent ILL squad pretty handily. Like you said, the polls are interesting, but the only one that matters is the one done by the NCAA for the seedings. And that might be the worst poll as far as correctness goes.
I always remember the 2013 NCAA tournament where Stanford played PSU in the Regional finals, where a great serving run by Nia Grant enabled PSU to come from a 9-6 deficit in the fifth to break Stanford's heart and beat them in 5. Karch's comment was that that match should have been the tournament final.
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Post by jojonito on Oct 10, 2022 11:22:34 GMT -5
I just looked at the Faktor ratings that Nitz mentioned above. They have PSU at 21. They don't think ILL is very good as they have them ranked at 71. Similar to some other polls as they have 7 B1G teams in the top 25. PSU's RPI has gone down because Oregon's just slipped. OR lost the Washington and Washington St over the weekend. Now, OR loss in 5 to both teams, but Faktor didn't seem to take that into account (not sure as not familiar with this ratings service). One more ratings to entertain VB fans during the season. |
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Post by nyline on Oct 10, 2022 11:29:41 GMT -5
First, the caveat that the only poll that matters is the one the NCAA makes when it seeds teams for the NCAA Tournament, and picks the non-automatic qualifiers. Having said that, I'm curious where Penn State will land in today's AVCA poll. Yesterday, before the Illinois match (and before Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington on Sunday, but after Oregon's 2-3 loss to Washington State on Friday) Massey Ratings had Penn State rated #20 (the week before, I think PSU was rated #13 in Massey)..... Whereas I'm curious about the Massey, I'm probably more curious about the Pablo ratings. For some reason, not sure if it's for any valid reasons , I trust the Pablo ratings more than the other polls/ratings algorithms. Also, I find the futures ratings down by vballfan17 on the "other" forum, (previously done by bluepenguin), interesting as it predicts the ending record (based on the Pablo algorithm) and also the ending RPI (heavily used by the NCAA rankins at the end of the year). It does what I was trying to do on another thread, predict what a team will do thru the end of the season based on how good they are now.
I found it interesting that the poll on the "other" forum didn't give PSU any love whatsoever. PSU was ranked 16th on that poll last week and is ranked 16th now; this after taking OSU to 5 (whom they have ranked #5) and beating a decent ILL squad pretty handily. Like you said, the polls are interesting, but the only one that matters is the one done by the NCAA for the seedings. And that might be the worst poll as far as correctness goes.
I always remember the 2013 NCAA tournament where Stanford played PSU in the Regional finals, where a great serving run by Nia Grant enabled PSU to come from a 9-6 deficit in the fifth to break Stanford's heart and beat them in 5. Karch's comment was that that match should have been the tournament final.
I think Pablo is very good -- but for me, it's not as easy to work with as Massey Ratings (which, fwiw, also give you a "predicted final record" for each team, albeit one that has fractional wins and losses). Same with the RPI ratings. But I take your points. |
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Post by jojonito on Oct 10, 2022 13:42:13 GMT -5
Okay, I looked at the Massey ratings. But the only way I could find the predicted final record was by totally up the matches that PSU is going to play where the chance of winning was greater than 50%. Am I missing something? Massey gives PSU a 56% chance to beat ILL at home and a 64% chance to beat NW at NW. Interestingly enough, Massey only gives OSU a 48% chance to beat PSU at PSU. I would have thought that would OSU would have had a better chance than that to beat PSU.
Massey seems to give PSU a better chance to be 11-9 in B1G than I do. (Guess I won't kid my job and go into predictions).
From what I can see, Maryland isn't doing that well this season, just from looking at their record. Cuz of the Adam Hughes connection, I always hope that they will do well (except against PSU of course). PSU still has some questions to answer as to how consistent they will be thru out the rest of the B1G. I guess we'll see.
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Post by traveler on Oct 10, 2022 14:02:45 GMT -5
AVCA 10/10/22 D1 Poll
14
1 Texas (64) 1600 12-0 1
2 Louisville 1533 15-1 2
3 Nebraska 1465 14-1 3
4 San Diego 1399 15-1 4
5 Wisconsin 1280 11-3 7
6 Ohio State 1261 9-5 6
7 Stanford 1181 10-4 8
8 Pittsburgh 1137 16-2 9
9 Purdue 1123 14-2 5
10 Minnesota 984 9-5 11
11 Georgia Tech 912 11-4 10
12 BYU 820 13-3 14
13 Florida 787 13-3 15
14 Penn State 775 14-3 13
15 Washington 745 13-3 16
16 Marquette 586 15-1 18
17 Oregon 566 10-4 12
18 Baylor 539 14-3 17
19 Kentucky 504 10-5 19
20 Pepperdine 434 14-4 20
21 Creighton 348 14-3 21
22 Rice 296 15-1 22
23 Western Kentucky 161 17-2 25
24-T Michigan 79 12-4 24
24-T UCF 79 13-1 23
RV: Houston 62; Towson 52; Arkansas 37; Washington State 23; Northwestern 14; Southern California 6; Mississippi State 5; LSU 4
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Post by ethankasales on Oct 10, 2022 14:19:38 GMT -5
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Post by ethankasales on Oct 10, 2022 14:54:44 GMT -5
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Post by pennstate1973 on Oct 10, 2022 15:11:47 GMT -5
I don't see why Purdue moved down. Getting beat by #6 Ohio State should not be a negative although I believe it was on Purdue's home court which might have made a difference.
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Post by nyline on Oct 10, 2022 15:23:45 GMT -5
Okay, I looked at the Massey ratings. But the only way I could find the predicted final record was by totally up the matches that PSU is going to play where the chance of winning was greater than 50%. Am I missing something? Massey gives PSU a 56% chance to beat ILL at home and a 64% chance to beat NW at NW. Interestingly enough, Massey only gives OSU a 48% chance to beat PSU at PSU. I would have thought that would OSU would have had a better chance than that to beat PSU. Massey seems to give PSU a better chance to be 11-9 in B1G than I do. (Guess I won't kid my job and go into predictions). From what I can see, Maryland isn't doing that well this season, just from looking at their record. Cuz of the Adam Hughes connection, I always hope that they will do well (except against PSU of course). PSU still has some questions to answer as to how consistent they will be thru out the rest of the B1G. I guess we'll see. If the Massey Ratings link I posted opens for you to the same page/layout as it does for me, the remaining expected wins/expected losses are listed in the two far righthand columns. For Penn State, Massey expects 8.79 more wins and 5.21 more losses. That reflects that the "expected wins" are percentages, and they run alot of simulations (probably something like a Monte Carlo simulator). As to whether Massey will be an accurate predictor, who knows. As I've said before, I find it interesting as an easier (for me) information portal on how everyone is doing. p.s. The way my brain works (and I think it's a phenomenon common to many/most people) when I see that Massey gives PSU a 56% chance to beat Illinois at Illinois, my brain subconsciously translates that into "Penn State will beat Illinois," whereas the reality is Massey Ratings is saying that if the two teams played at Illinois 100 times, Penn State would lose 44 of those matches. So, if Illinois beats Penn State (NOT GONNA HAPPEN) when they play the match this season at Illinois, I'll be disappointed, because they were going to win, right? pps: I think Penn State will beat Illinois at Illinois. |
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Post by ethankasales on Oct 10, 2022 16:55:28 GMT -5
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Post by jojonito on Oct 10, 2022 17:17:30 GMT -5
Thanks nyline, I didn't get that.
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Post by ethankasales on Oct 10, 2022 19:23:07 GMT -5
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